Tuesday, August 14, 2007

New Game

J suggested that we should have a game of analyzing annual reports to identify trading ideas, instead of wasting our idle time on Boggle and Scrabble. I don't know how he would think that is as fun as Boggle and Scrabble for him, especially he is always winning at the two games.
He also wanted to steer my attention from the property market, which I had a larger exposure than to the stock market.
I don't think he would succeed.
My current exposure to stock market is only 23 percent of what I have in properties. No little game will distract when I have too much at stake and entire early retirement plan is dependent on how long the U.S. Subprime will roil the markets.
In this bloodshed, my property investment is still holding up well. My equity investment (bonds are only for accredited investors: I don't have US$2 million of assets yet.) has lost 10 percent of its value. I have liquidity risk in one, and mark to market risk in the other. In a volatile market, I am most affected by the mark-to-market risk. With leverage, that mark-to-market risk is damaging my cash flows. But, I am not making provisions in my P/L statement as yet.
Is there a bubble?
Someone said that the boom has just begun. It can't end that soon.
Asia's equity market has been rising for the last 3.5 years. But, other emerging markets have done better. MSCI rose 128 percent since end of 2003. Latin America and Eastern Europe rose 289 percent and 212 percent so far.
Potential for more growth? Let's wait and see. But my eyes are roving.

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